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Washington is simultaneously managing a fragile Iran ceasefire, a fraying NATO deterrence posture, and a Chinese diplomatic offensive over Taiwan — all while trying to hold together a bilateral truce with Beijing that both sides keep quietly undermining.
A fragile US-Iran ceasefire over the Strait of Hormuz, China's targeted rare-earth export controls, and fractures ahead of the NATO Ankara summit converge into the most compressed geopolitical stress-test of 2026.
China sanctions dozens of U.S. firms and tightens rare-earth controls, Russia rejects real ceasefire terms in Ukraine, the U.S. and Iran sign an initial deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and Washington signals a possible drawdown of forces in...